Archive for January 25th, 2009
Weekend Roundup
Here we go, Final week of January. This will be a critical week. We can just about write off the odds that the major indices make it a positive month. Which is to say i dont think there will be a 9% rally this week. That being said, we do have the final week of a month bias, which gives us once again a bias to the upside.
General Conditions: Bearish
Intermediate: trading range
Next Week: slightly Bullish outlook
$SPX – I’d be out of all shorts above 844, out of all longs below 803.
Last week we wouldve gotten out of all long trades within the first 30 min, and looked to the shorts. This shouldve been followed as my long side predictions were only right for 28% of the calls. while short side trades were 85% right.
Spiders: returning champs, XLE, XLV, XLU were up last week and look even better this week. XLF has a weekly gap. its a sell till it breaks above it. then its probably a huge buy in the short term. XLK,XLP,XLY look bad to me.
Dow Stocks: I dont know about early on this week, but IBM is a champ. BA looks like the best short for the week. JPM fought off its gap, that could be nice to the long side. KFT is another, though its getting extended. GE needs a bounce, but after that it should be shorted. PFE, a trade from last week. they announced a crappy acquisition and it went higher?!?! buy it.
Currency and Commodities and Bonds: $USD, GLD, and SLV are strong but need to pull back here IMO. go figure that one if youre looking for correlations. USO looks great here, and i look for EUR and GBP to recover a bit here. GBP is a sell @ that 145 level though. FXY, well i guess odds are it goes down if the other trades develop, but im pretty neutral for now. Bonds look like they may have a bit more downside but overall i look for a bit of a bounce.
Economy: ugh, what a messy week this will be. leading indicators will be important to my own outlook. then GDP, thats going to be THE number i believe. That will impact all markets mentioned.
Links:
Freddie Flintstone needs a new tire (at some point, these are going to have to fail, the $USD cant support all of these institutions. Theyre too big to save!
Great Chart on Financial sector income
Prefered shares prefer to go lower
Country Default Risk – which should help people who want to sell the $USD vs other currencies. and japan for that matter
Real Earnings Yield. always found this theory to have some interesting charts. lots of reading here (i didnt read all of this one) but some good charts to see down at the end. Best “value” case around IMO
Ghost Inventories; well, this gives the warm fuzzy feeling
At least Ken Lewis knew he was gonna take it up the ass which is not a reference to the smirk on Thains face in that video…but it should be
why the rails have been derailed.
Quote of the Week:
“If a market goes up when it should go up, i might buy earlier than normal. if it goes down when it should go up, ill wait until the trend is better defined.”
Richard Dennis
“ask not what your bank can do for you, ask what you can do for your bank”
While i was drinking a Manhattan
